Last updated December 16, 2025
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Creaser | 28 | 9 | 66.7% | 1 | 32.7 | 1 |
| 2 | Andrew Batchelor | 26 | 9 | 61.9% | 2 | 30.5 | 2 |
| 3 | Matt Hogel | 25 | 9 | 59.5% | 3 | 30.0 | 3 |
| 4 | Karl Loiseau | 24 | 9 | 57.1% | 4 | 28.3 | 4 |
| 5 | Matt McEwan | 23 | 9 | 54.8% | 5 | 27.6 | 5 |
| 6 | Mike Thorne | 21 | 9 | 50.0% | 6 | 25.9 | 6 |
| 7 | Dan Ellenberger | 20 | 9 | 47.6% | 7 | 23.8 | 8 |
| 8 | Andrew Moeller | 19 | 9 | 45.2% | 8 | 23.8 | 7 |
| 9 | Luke Phelan | 17 | 9 | 40.5% | 9 | 21.2 | 9 |
| 10 | Nick Boucher | 13 | 9 | 31.0% | 10 | 17.5 | 10 |
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| New England Patriots | 11 | 12.7 | BAL | 0.39 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | 10.9 | WAS | 0.72 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 9.1 | SF | 0.28 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 13.7 | JAX | 0.61 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 | 11.8 | DEN | 0.39 |
| Washington Commanders | 4 | 5.0 | PHI | 0.28 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 11.7 | IND | 0.72 |
| Houston Texans | 9 | 11.0 | LV | 0.88 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | 7.3 | CIN | 0.45 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 13.0 | SEA | 0.55 |
| Chicago Bears | 10 | 11.2 | GB | 0.45 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 4.1 | ATL | 0.41 |
| Matt McEwan | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 12.6 | LA | 0.45 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10 | 12.1 | CLE | 0.81 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 2.9 | HOU | 0.12 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 11.4 | DAL | 0.45 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 10.8 | CHI | 0.55 |
| New York Giants | 2 | 3.7 | MIN | 0.39 |
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 8.6 | NE | 0.61 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 8.1 | TB | 0.39 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 7.1 | NYG | 0.61 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Detroit Lions | 8 | 9.9 | PIT | 0.73 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 7.6 | LAC | 0.55 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 6.3 | ARI | 0.59 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | 9.5 | DET | 0.27 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 8.7 | CAR | 0.61 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 | 3.0 | KC | 0.38 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 7.8 | TEN | 0.62 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 6.0 | MIA | 0.55 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 3.7 | BUF | 0.19 |
Leverage measured by:
* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first
place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely
contested
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | 4 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| New England Patriots | 11 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Washington Commanders | 4 | 14 | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
| Houston Texans | 9 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 4 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 17 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | 10 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt McEwan | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 10 | 1 | 12 | -2 | 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 27 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 7 | 10 | -1 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| New York Giants | 2 | 28 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 2 | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 16 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 8 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 22 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | 10 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 12 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 | 24 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 13 | 8 | -4 | 11 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 1 |